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مجلة النفط والتعاون العربي
161
العدد
- 2017
أربعون
المجلد الثالث و ال
2016
أوابك العلمية لعام
�
ص لبحوث العلمية الفائزة بجائزة
�
عدد خا
42
32
Trends of Specifications:
While Group I lubricating oils are still produced to a large extent around the
world, it is clear that this is changing. Group II are now much more favoured
1
in
automotive oils for their quality and the fact that their relative cost is equal or
only 5% over that of Group I.
Table (6) indicates the trend clearly where Group I share is likely to fall from
44% in 2014 to 26% in 2019.
This trend is the result of “tighter emission
regulations and rising economy specifications such as longer oil changes (or drain
intervals) and better fuel efficiency
37
.”
Only in China, about half a million tons a year of Group I capacity is expected to
go offline in favour of producing higher grades
37
. In Saudi Arabia
57
, Bahrain
37
and the United Arab Emirates
37
large Groups II and III production capacities are
well underway. Therefore Group II share, excluding naphthenic oils, is expected
to increase from 34% in 2014 to 48% in 2019 and the share would be much higher
if naphthenic oils are included.
It is a question of cost and market why the higher synthetic oils are not increasing
their share as fast. In spite of their advantages in protecting engines and improving
fuel efficiency, they are judged by consumers to be very expensive. At the same
time some Group III producers are improving final products by increasing
severity to produce very high viscosity index products close to Group IV
32
specification at lower cost.
Table (6)
World % production of API Groups
Mineral Oils
Group
2004
2014
2019
Relative Cost
G-I
46
44
26
1
G-II
47
34
48
1.05
G-III
3
11
13
1.5
Synthetic oils
G-IV
2
1
1
2.5 - 3
G-V
1.6
5
–
10+
Naphthenic*
10
12
Source:32 for 2004 & 31 for 2014
–
2019
*Naphthenic oils fall more into G II.