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مجلة النفط والتعاون العربي
161
العدد
- 2017
أربعون
المجلد الثالث و ال
2016
أوابك العلمية لعام
�
ص لبحوث العلمية الفائزة بجائزة
�
عدد خا
90
80
For a smaller plant of 30 thousand cubic meters a year, the situation is much
worse as the IRR is 2% and NPV is negative at $16.037 million. To break even,
used oil cost has to fall to $7.95 a barrel which makes the case for subsidy even
more apparent.
Table (20)
Large Plant (Hydro-treating) Sensitivity Analysis - 10 years
Base
Stock
$/ton
Capacity
ML/Y
Capital
Cost
M$
Used
Oil
$/L
Oil
Price
$/b
Hydrogen
$/CM
IRR
%
NPV
K$
%
Change
Base Case
700
50
45
0.27
98
0.5
20
8602
Base Stock Change
648
15
0
-7
Capacity Change
44.7
15
0
-11
Capital Cost Change
51.5
15
0
14
Used Oil Change
0.3
15
0
11
Oil Price Change
76
15
0
-22
Hydrogen Change
63.4
15
0
12584
Current Example 1
600
50
50
0.15
40
0.5
12
-4922
Current Example 1 S
600
50
50
0.13
40
0.5
15
0
Current Example 2
600
30
36
0.15
40
0.5
2
-16037
Current Example 2 S
600
30
36
0.05
40
0.5
15
0
M= million L= litre b= barrel CM= cubic metre IRR= internal rate of returns
NPV= net positive value k= 1000 Used oil cost = $23.85/b including transportation.
Source: Author Development
In this report, the model in its original format, with the exception of the small
modifications mentioned earlier, has been used in this analysis. However future
users may improve the model by segregating and reporting expenditures prior to
the start of production instea
d of including all these as “capital” in year 1. This is
likely to give better and more encouraging economic results. At the same time
the analysis may be extended to 15 or 20 years and this also will give better
economic returns.
Notes for Economic Consideration: