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البحـث الأول
مجلة النفط والتعاون العربي
161
العدد
- 2017
أربعون
المجلد الثالث و ال
2016
أوابك العلمية لعام
�
ص لبحوث العلمية الفائزة بجائزة
�
عدد خا
89
79
The internal rate of return is 19% and net positive value is $1.103 million. Used
oil cost can increase to $24.5 a barrel before NPV falls to zero. For a larger plant,
the IRR is 23% and NPV $3.853 million and an increase of used oil cost to $27 a
barrel would make NPV equals zero. In such a case subsidies would be in order
to encourage investment.
Table (19)
Small Plant (Clay Treatment) Sensitivity Analysis - 10 years
Base Stock
$/ton
Capacity
ML/Y
Capital
Cost
M$
Used
Oil $/L
IRR
%
NPV
K$
%
Change
Base Case
700
20
6
0.27
27
3172
Base Stock Change
656
15
0
-6
Capacity Change
15
15
0
-23
Capital Cost Change
8
15
0
38
Used Oil Change
0.3
15
0
11
Current Example 1
500
20
6.6
0.15
19
1103
Current Example 1 S
500
20
6.6
0.16
15
0
Current Example 2
500
30
8.6
0.15
23
3853
Current Example 2 S
500
30
8.6
0.17
15
0
M= million L= litre IRR= internal rate of return NPV= net positive value
Used oil cost $23.85/b including transportation.
Source: Author Development
Distillation/Hydrogenation Plant Economics:
The parameters in this case are more numerous as can be seen in Table (20). In a
similar manner as said above, the economics are sensitive to base oil price,
capacity, used oil cost and capital investment in that order. The plant is not
sensitive to hydrogen cost due to the relatively small quantity required.
Applying the model for a 50 thousand cubic meters a year plant and to current
values, the IRR is found to be 12% but the NPV is negative at minus $4.922
million. For the plant to break even the cost of used oil has to fall to close to $20.7
a barrel and to make reasonable profit used oil cost has to fall further or subsidies
by government would be necessary to encourage investment.